Key Structural Observations
Overwhelming call-side conviction: Three of the five signals are long call positions totaling 3,396 contracts on the MAY/JUN upside wing. Against this, the two short signals are put selling. The net positioning is unambiguously bullish — institutions are simultaneously buying upside calls and selling downside puts across the entire term structure.
Term structure is inverted on the put side: APR puts trade at 22–28% IV while JUN puts at similar deltas trade 20–25%. The 09:12 calendar trade explicitly harvests this — selling rich near-term vol and buying cheap long-dated vol.
Deep OTM tail hedging: Separately, 780 contracts of APR 4875P (55.9% IV, -0.02 delta) and 497 of MAY 4500P (51.7% IV) traded — pure crash protection at extreme strikes. This coexists with the bullish call accumulation, suggesting the same institutions are positioning for upside while maintaining tail hedges.